According to @BullTheoryio, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) has broken below a 16-year long-term trendline and is testing the 96 level that preceded the 2017 and 2021 Bitcoin bull runs, source: @BullTheoryio. They state that sustained moves below 96 have historically coincided with strong Bitcoin performance, implying a potential tailwind for BTC if sub-96 conditions persist, source: @BullTheoryio.

According to @KobeissiLetter, Japanese investors held a combined $2.22 trillion in US bonds and stocks at the end of 2024, based on Bank of Japan data, highlighting their outsized role in US asset demand, source: Bank of Japan data cited by @KobeissiLetter. The tweet adds that the next largest exposures are via the Cayman Islands and France at $834 billion and $179 billion respectively, with the UK also noted though the excerpted figure is not shown, source: Bank of Japan data cited by @KobeissiLetter. For traders, the scale of Japanese capital flows is a critical liquidity and pricing driver for US Treasuries and equities, making Bank of Japan policy signals and yen dynamics important catalysts to monitor, source: Bank of Japan data cited by @KobeissiLetter.

According to @BullTheoryio, the US dollar is selling off following reports of Federal Reserve rate checks and speculation about Japanese yen intervention, and the IMF is stress testing scenarios involving a rapid sell-off of U.S. dollar assets based on remarks attributed to Kristalina Georgieva (source: @BullTheoryio).

According to @Andre_Dragosch, the real-time USD share in international FX reserves is falling rapidly and was already close to 40% in November 2025, a trend he notes has historically been tightly correlated with DXY, implying downside risk for the Dollar (source: X post by @Andre_Dragosch). According to @Andre_Dragosch, this rapid erosion in reserve share suggests the potential for massive Dollar depreciation if the correlation persists (source: X post by @Andre_Dragosch). According to @Andre_Dragosch, precious metals are rallying as this shift unfolds, underscoring defensive positioning in macro trades (source: X post by @Andre_Dragosch).

According to The Kobeissi Letter, the US Dollar Index (DXY) is down about 1.5% month to date and has fallen to its lowest level since September 18 after logging its worst year since 2017, signaling continued dollar weakness (source: The Kobeissi Letter). According to The Kobeissi Letter, this backdrop supports a pro-asset stance, summarized as own assets or be left behind, implying ongoing bid for risk and real-return exposures (source: The Kobeissi Letter).

According to @garyblack00, gold has more than doubled over the last two years, gaining 65% in 2025 versus the S&P 500’s 16% and rising 17% in 2026 year to date, highlighting its role as a fear gauge. According to @garyblack00, the advance is driven by the debasement trade as investors retreat from Treasuries and the US dollar. According to @garyblack00, recent actions by the Trump administration — including challenges to Federal Reserve independence, threats regarding Greenland, and military intervention in Venezuela — have spooked markets, while a massive Japanese bond selloff underscores investor pushback against heavy fiscal spending. According to @garyblack00 citing Max Belmont of First Eagle Investment Management, gold functions as the inverse of confidence and serves as a hedge against unexpected inflation, unanticipated market drawdowns, and geopolitical risk.

According to @CryptoMichNL, the Japanese yen rallied on Friday while the US dollar weakened over the week, aligning with a Russell 2000 breakout that suggests improving risk conditions. According to @CryptoMichNL, these macro signals point to better business cycle and growth conditions. According to @CryptoMichNL, upcoming PMI data will be a crucial indicator for the direction of markets into 2026 and should be closely watched by traders.

According to @lisaabramowicz1, Apollo’s Torsten Slok highlighted that foreign demand for US assets was more robust in 2025 than in 2024, countering fears of a mass exodus from the dollar, which is a key macro input for FX, rates, and crypto positioning; source: @lisaabramowicz1 on X, Dec 29, 2025. For flow verification and tracking, traders should reference the U.S. Treasury’s Treasury International Capital (TIC) system, which measures net foreign purchases of Treasuries, agencies, corporate debt, and equities to gauge overseas appetite for USD assets; source: U.S. Department of the Treasury, TIC System. Stronger foreign buying typically supports the USD and can anchor Treasury term premia by absorbing duration supply, shaping DXY and yield dynamics that influence global risk appetite; source: Federal Reserve Board research on term premia and demand effects, BIS Quarterly Review on global dollar funding. For crypto, BTC has historically exhibited periods of negative rolling correlation with DXY, meaning USD strength can coincide with softer BTC performance; source: Coin Metrics correlation datasets and research. Actionably, monitor DXY levels, U.S. 10Y yields, and the monthly TIC release calendar to adjust USD exposure and crypto beta, especially BTC and USD pairs sensitive to dollar liquidity; source: ICE Data Indices (DXY methodology), U.S. Treasury TIC calendar, Coin Metrics correlation monitors.

According to @CNBC, the Federal Reserve may opt for a hawkish cut, meaning a rate reduction with tight guidance, which could dull market festivities and curb risk appetite across equities and crypto. Source: CNBC @CNBC notes that in such a scenario the tone and forward guidance matter more than the headline cut for near term price action, raising volatility risk in S and P 500 futures, Treasury yields, the US dollar, BTC and ETH. Source: CNBC For trading, @CNBC’s warning implies close attention to the policy statement and press conference, as restrictive messaging could trigger knee jerk reversals in high beta assets and crypto liquidity. Source: CNBC

According to @StockMKTNewz, Standard Chartered now expects the US Federal Reserve to cut rates by 25 bps this week, reversing its previous forecast of no rate cut, source: @StockMKTNewz. This update provides a clearer baseline policy scenario for the imminent decision window and is time-sensitive for event-driven positioning, source: @StockMKTNewz. The post did not include rationale, market pricing, or asset-specific guidance, source: @StockMKTNewz. Crypto market participants tracking BTC and ETH can treat the Fed decision timing as scheduled event risk this week, source: @StockMKTNewz.

According to The Kobeissi Letter, the Fed’s Trade Weighted Real Broad Dollar Index is sitting near a 40-year high, underscoring historically strong USD conditions. According to the Federal Reserve Board H.10 data, this real broad index tracks the inflation-adjusted value of the USD against a trade-weighted basket of 26 currencies and current readings remain at multi-decade extremes. According to research from the Bank for International Settlements and the Federal Reserve, sustained USD appreciation tightens global financial conditions and can pressure dollar-denominated risk assets by reducing global liquidity. According to Kaiko market data, BTC and ETH have generally exhibited a negative correlation with the US dollar index in recent cycles, implying potential headwinds for crypto performance if USD strength persists.

According to @KobeissiLetter, US ADP Private Payrolls reportedly fell by 32,000 jobs in November versus a consensus gain of 10,000 expected. Source: @KobeissiLetter. The author adds that the Federal Reserve will have no choice but to cut rates again, highlighting a dovish policy view tied to the softer labor signal. Source: @KobeissiLetter. For traders, downside surprises in ADP data are often interpreted as dovish for rates and the US dollar, a setup that can be supportive for risk assets such as BTC and ETH during rate-cut repricing episodes. Source: CME FedWatch Tool; Federal Reserve communications on data-dependent policy. Next catalysts to confirm or refute labor softness and its market impact include the official ADP release details and the Bureau of Labor Statistics Nonfarm Payrolls report later this week. Source: ADP Research Institute; U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

According to @CoinMarketCap, QCP Capital states financial markets are in a late-cycle phase and are not facing an immediate recession. Source: CoinMarketCap (Twitter), citing QCP Capital, Nov 20, 2025. QCP Capital adds that Bitcoin is becoming increasingly sensitive to broader macro shifts, signaling higher responsiveness to data like inflation, interest rates, and the US dollar. Source: CoinMarketCap (Twitter), citing QCP Capital, Nov 20, 2025.

According to @StockMKTNewz, Fed President Musalem said there is limited room to ease policy further and that monetary policy is closer to neutral than modestly restrictive (source: @StockMKTNewz, Nov 10, 2025). According to @StockMKTNewz, he also noted that U.S. stock prices and house prices are elevated, highlighting vigilance on financial conditions rather than imminent rate cuts (source: @StockMKTNewz, Nov 10, 2025). For trading, these remarks point to constrained easing expectations; traders can monitor front-end Treasury yields, the U.S. dollar, and crypto risk proxies such as BTC and ETH intraday volatility following the Fed headlines for direction (source: independent trading analysis of @StockMKTNewz-reported comments, Nov 10, 2025).

According to @KobeissiLetter, foreign official US Treasuries held in Federal Reserve custody fell to $2.78 trillion in October, the lowest level since 2012 (source: @KobeissiLetter). Foreign official holdings in Fed custody have decreased by $166 billion since March and are down $356 billion from the 2021 peak, indicating weakening foreign demand for US debt and increased diversification away from US Dollar assets (source: @KobeissiLetter). Gold has been a key beneficiary of this rotation, consistent with reserve managers diversifying away from US debt (source: @KobeissiLetter). Traders should monitor US Treasury yield moves and gold flows for positioning as this decline in official custody holdings underscores softer marginal demand for Treasuries and shifting reserve preferences (source: @KobeissiLetter).

According to @KobeissiLetter, the S&P 500 is up about 40 percent over the last six months, gold is nearing 4,000 US dollars per ounce, Bitcoin (BTC) reached a record 2.5 trillion US dollars in market capitalization, and the US Dollar is on track for its worst year since 1973 (source: @KobeissiLetter, Oct 5, 2025). According to @KobeissiLetter, the thread frames this as a cross-asset surge versus US Dollar weakness and asks whether markets are that strong or the Dollar is just crashing, providing a trading context across equities, gold, BTC, and the Dollar trend (source: @KobeissiLetter).

According to @KobeissiLetter, the US Dollar is on track for its worst year since 1973 with a decline of more than 10% year to date, source: @KobeissiLetter. According to @KobeissiLetter, the US Dollar has lost over 40% of its purchasing power since 2000, source: @KobeissiLetter. According to @KobeissiLetter, the Federal Reserve is cutting rates while Core PCE inflation runs above 2.9% for the first time in over 30 years, source: @KobeissiLetter. According to @KobeissiLetter, this backdrop favors hard assets, with gold and Bitcoin (BTC) expected to lead performance, source: @KobeissiLetter.

According to @KookCapitalLLC, the US dollar is the original bundled rug and investors should buy Bitcoin (BTC), signaling a strongly bullish stance on BTC versus USD; source: https://twitter.com/KookCapitalLLC/status/1954167199825899852. The post provides no price targets, timeframe, or supporting macro/on-chain data, indicating it is an opinion-only call rather than a quantified trading signal; source: https://twitter.com/KookCapitalLLC/status/1954167199825899852.

According to @WhiteHouse, the Trump administration is promoting the GENIUS Act as part of its commitment to establishing the United States as the global capital for cryptocurrency. The stated goals of this proposed legislation are to enhance consumer protection within the digital asset market, secure the U.S. dollar's status as the world's primary reserve currency, and actively combat illicit financial activities involving digital assets. For traders and investors, this signals a potential shift in the U.S. regulatory landscape for cryptocurrencies, aiming to provide a clearer framework while reinforcing the dollar's dominance.

According to The Kobeissi Letter, a significant inverse correlation is being observed between the US Dollar and Bitcoin (BTC). The US Dollar has experienced its worst start to a year since 1973, declining 11% year-to-date. Concurrently, Bitcoin's price has surged by 55% since April 2025, reaching a new record high. The analysis suggests this inverse relationship is not a coincidence, indicating that dollar weakness may be a primary driver for the current cryptocurrency bull run.